July 10, 2026

One Month Rewind

On June 17, the U.S. and Iran signed a Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) that provided an outline for a peace agreement and a ceasefire while negotiations were ongoing.  A little less than one month later, the MOU appears to have been voided.

On this news, the 10-year Treasury yield climbed back up above 4.5%, roughly where it was a month ago.  The higher interest rate is in part driven by an expectation that oil prices may be higher for longer, which would be inflationary.  Brent oil prices per barrel have risen from about $70 per barrel to roughly $77 following the termination of the ceasefire, also about where they were in mid-June.

This week, Samsung Electronics released its second-quarter pre-earnings guidance.  The company delivered core operating profit well ahead of consensus estimates driven by better-than-expected DRAM pricing and profitability.  Revenues slightly missed expectations. The stock traded down by about 9%, following the report.  Separately, China-based DeepSeek announced it will begin developing its own AI semiconductor chips.  The semiconductor industry has a long history of cyclicality, as supply (including from new sources) tends to increase when pricing and demand are high.. . .

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